Parity has defined women’s college basketball this season.
With no unbeatens heading into Selection Sunday, a few of the tournament favorites are marked by the number three.
Dawn Staley’s South Carolina team has three losses entering the tournament after going unbeaten last season all the way to another NCAA championship. UConn also has lost three times this season, as has USC. Same with Texas and TCU, two other teams in the top 10.
Then there’s UCLA, led by center Lauren Betts and guard Kiki Rice, who finished the season as the AP’s top-ranked team. But even the Bruins have exposed their vulnerability with their only two losses coming against crosstown rival USC. And despite Notre Dame’s five losses, the Fighting Irish are another contender to make it to Tampa, Florida, for the Final Four.
The point is this: March’s only guarantee is madness.
Upsets? No such thing this season.
South Carolina lost to UCLA, Texas and UConn in blowouts, but all three are top-10 teams. USC lost by a combined 10 points to Iowa at midseason and then UCLA in the Big Ten Tournament. Their only double-digit loss came against Notre Dame. Similarly, UConn’s only loss by more than 10 points also came against Notre Dame, which could be standing under the confetti April 6.
These top teams have traded losses against each other and are filled with WNBA-caliber talents who have proved all season that on any given night, they have the power to dismantle a higher-ranked team.
No one has an upper hand in a single-elimination tournament, but that’s especially true this year. A team’s only hope for gaining an advantage lies in the bracket breakdown and the chance of an off night for its opponent.
UCLA has the advantage over South Carolina for the top overall seed given its 15-point win against the Gamecocks early in the season. But expect the Gamecocks to be one of the four No. 1 seeds in the tournament. USC’s two victories against UCLA should earn the Trojans a 1-seed. The last No. 1 seed likely will come down to either UConn or Texas.
The Huskies and Longhorns lost to Notre Dame, but Texas’ two other losses were to South Carolina. This could give the Longhorns the edge over UConn, with losses to USC and No. 20 Tennessee on its record.
If the No. 1 seeds are UCLA, USC, Texas and South Carolina, then expect UConn to fall in with the No. 2 seeds along with Duke, TCU and either N.C. State or Notre Dame.
Notre Dame’s inconsistent finish this season, including a loss to Duke in the ACC championship game, coupled with its losses to TCU and N.C. State earlier in the season mean a 3-seed is more realistic for the Irish. Joining them could be LSU, Oklahoma and North Carolina.
Conference realignment means that the Big Ten likely will have the most teams in the tournament, narrowly edging the SEC.
But that doesn’t mean the Big Ten will be over-represented in the Final Four. Whichever team between UCLA and USC ends up in a bracket with Notre Dame could see its path to a title thwarted. Because while the Irish have stumbled their way into the tournament with three losses in their last five games, there isn’t a more explosive backcourt in the country than Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles. V
